Sarah Palin will push 9 toss-up states into McCain's camp (from left to right):
This will give McCain the Electoral College victory in November, 300 to 238.
The Palin-Effect works two different ways: Rough Rider Admiration and Strong Woman Identification. This estimate and projection is based on analysis of detailed polling data from Gallup and Reuters. The terms Rough Rider Admiration and Strong Woman Identification are my own.
Rough Rider Admiration
In Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Michigan, Indiana, and Florida, men and women who admire rugged individualissts, the outdoors, sports, and that Ronald Reagan stump-clearing ideal will trend to Palin. This trend will be driven by admiration more than identification.
Strong Woman Identification
In New Hampshire, Ohio, and Virginia, identification with a strong woman will be more prevelant than the Rough Rider effect. This move will take longer to emerge. Visible migration in the polls won't occur until after the Vice Presidential debate in St. Louis on October 2.
The risks to these theories are, in order of likelihood:
- Obama can neutralize the Strong Woman Identification effect by dumping Biden for Hillary Clinton.
- McCain could subdue both effects by hiding Palin or limiting her exposure
- A poor debate performance by Palin could neutralize her Strong Woman Identification
Since Thursday, several prominent Democrats have indicated that Obama may be considering dropping Biden from the ticket and adding Hillary Clinton as his vice presidential running mate. Biden is a very weak VP candidate who damages Obama's campaign with idiotic speech almost every day of the week. If offered the deal, Hillary might well declining fearing the move would doom Obama's campaign.
Already Obama has abandoned his "campaign in every state" promise to concentrate on several key battleground states: Ohio, Florida, Virginia, and Colorado. That's admission that Sarah Palin has striken panic in the hearts of his campaign team.