Battleground States: My Predictions vs. Polls

Saturday I posted this prediction on Palin's effect on the polls in nine battleground polls.  A Rasmussen poll released tonight concentrates on five of those states, so let's see how my predictions are tracking.  As of Saturday, all of these states were too close to call with neither candidate holding a meaningful advantage:

State My Prediction Rasmussen Grade
McCain Obama  
Colorado Fast McCain Lead 46 49 F
Florida Fast McCain Lead 48 48 B
Ohio Slow Move to McCain 51 44 B
Pennsylvania Slow Move to McCain 45 47 A
Virginia Fast McCain Lead 49 47 A
Average 47.8 47 B-

 

Analysis

Colorado:  I expected the outdoors types (Rough Riders) to flock to Palin, but apparently Colorado is still under the spell of the DNC convention.  Let's give this a we

Florida:  McCain's numbers rose in Florida but not quickly enough.  Scott Rasmussen said this could have been the result of Hurricane Ike preparations. 

Ohio:  I predicted a slow shift to McCain (lead around 10/2), but people flocked to McCain.  Women drove the move.

Pennsylvania:  Trending slowly toward McCain.  He'll have the lead shortly after the VP debate.

Virginia:  The Palin effect drove McCain ahead of Obama, which was my prediction.  McCain needs to concentrate on this state, though, because he should be ahead by 7 or 8 here.

I'll continue to update my predictions as more battleground state poll come in.