The Post-Palin Electoral College Map

Sarah Palin will push 9 toss-up states into McCain's camp (from left to right):

  • Nevada
  • Colorado
  • New Mexico
  • Michigan
  • New Hampshire
  • Indiana 
  • Ohio
  • Virginia
  • Florida
This will give McCain the Electoral College victory in November, 300 to 238. 
The Palin-Effect works two different ways:  Rough Rider Admiration and Strong Woman Identification.  This estimate and projection is based on analysis of detailed polling data from Gallup and Reuters.  The terms Rough Rider Admiration and Strong Woman Identification are my own. 
Rough Rider Admiration
In Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Michigan, Indiana, and Florida, men and women who admire rugged individualissts, the outdoors, sports, and that Ronald Reagan stump-clearing ideal will trend to Palin.  This trend will be driven by admiration more than identification.  
Strong Woman Identification
In New Hampshire, Ohio, and Virginia, identification with a strong woman will be more prevelant than the Rough Rider effect.  This move will take longer to emerge.  Visible migration in the polls won't occur until after the Vice Presidential debate in St. Louis on October 2.
Risks
The risks to these theories are, in order of likelihood:
  • Obama can neutralize the Strong Woman Identification effect by dumping Biden for Hillary Clinton.
  • McCain could subdue both effects by hiding Palin or limiting her exposure
  • A poor debate performance by Palin could neutralize her Strong Woman Identification
Since Thursday, several prominent Democrats have indicated that Obama may be considering dropping Biden from the ticket and adding Hillary Clinton as his vice presidential running mate.  Biden is a very weak VP candidate who damages Obama's campaign with idiotic speech almost every day of the week.  If offered the deal, Hillary might well declining fearing the move would doom Obama's campaign.  
Already Obama has abandoned his "campaign in every state" promise to concentrate on several key battleground states:  Ohio, Florida, Virginia, and Colorado.  That's admission that Sarah Palin has striken panic in the hearts of his campaign team.  

Fred Fading?

A new CBS News poll of 302 Republicans shows that Rudy Giuliani has widened his lead over Fred Thompson. Captain's Quarters breaks down the unreliability of CBS, the problems with the sample, etc, so I won't repeat that here. Instead, let's say the numbers are correct and Fred Thompson is fading fast. Two questions come up: Why? and What of it?

Why: Interest in Thompson as the non-candidate peaked in late June and the first week of July. Supporters and observers, alike, checked the blogs and the news regularly to see if he'd made any official announcements. When word came that his official announcement might come in September, the whole Thompson story lost its news-worthiness. The free pub he'd been getting was gone, and losing that exposure could hurt him.

What of it: If Thompson announces just after Labor Day (no one will notice if he announces during Labor Day weekend), he will pick up some attention. People naturally look around for a fall pastime after the last summer holiday. During election years, Labor Day is when the race starts to take shape. In the preceding year, it's when the political junkies start getting serious and the casual voters starts eliminating bad choices (though not necessarily selecting positive choices). If he waits much past Labor Day, he won't run.

For those of us with I'm With Fred logos all over the site, these nail-biting days. While other Republicans might be able to whoop Hillary or Osama or Edwards, Thompson seems the only candidate who would have serious coat-tails.

Ball's in your court, Fred.

**UPDATE** 8/16:  Captain's Quarters is also following this story and has found that Rasmussen corroborates CBSNews findings . . . and then some . . .

Five Kids and the List of Nos

Five kids is a lot these days.  "You have five kids?  Oh, my God!" people say, their eyes bugged out, mouths wide open.

Even when the oldest were babies, developmental psychologists were advising parent not to tell children "no."  Their theory was that "no" would teach a child limitation and destroy his curiosity.  Instead, offer an alternative.  Well, that doesn't work. 

But the funny thing is, it's the no "no" advice is totally out of synch with society.

My dad came home from two wars:  World War II and Korea.  I try, these humid summer nights when the whole house is asleep, to think to of the prohibitions Jack Hennessy faced in 1953.  He change the oil in his car, smoke in the grocery store and Sears, drive a car without a seatbelt, build a house to own liking, spank his kids, let his 16-year-old kids swim without a lifeguard, ride a bike without a helmet, tear down his house and build a new one, fly the American flag, and wash his car in the driveway.

These are just a few of the things his grandchildren can't do.  And the list of "NO"s getst longer every day, doesn't it.  For instance, his son, according McCain-Feingold, cannot blog 60 days before an election.  Petty little pleasures, aren't they? that society denies us.  And it denies us more every, every day.

It saddens me when I read young people's blogs that seem to encourage the government to deny more freedoms.  They seem willing, even eager, to trade their little bit of freedom for some guarantee of health, wealth, and happiness.  How said and naive.  Of course, their little pieces of freedom are so puny by 1953 standards, it's no wonder they're willing to cast them aside.  Sam Adams and George Washington knew some serious freedom; they were eager to die to preserve it for their kids.

And absolute prohibitions are only the start of our denied freedom.  You can't do a lot of things without money, so another way society limits our freedom--places more "NO"s on us--is taxation.  When Dad came home from Korea, combined taxes were 25 percent of GNP.  Today, the percentage of the economy that goes to taxes is almost 40 percent.  That's a lot of freedom transplanted from the people to the politicians.

There are dangers in driving without a seat belt, shooting off fireworks, and swimming in a river.  There is life in these things, too.  There is excitement and rush and flush and pleasure.  There is childhood and feeling grown up.  There is joy and memory and anticipation and running through the woods at night laughing with your friends.  There is freedom.  And maybe real freedoms would make the escapism of recreational-cum-addictive drugs  and careless sex less attractive.  Maybe young people today would act more like kids in the 50s if they were allowed to act like kids in the 50s.

Freedom.

I'll never a have fortune to pass to my children.  And unlike every generation that came before mine, it looks like I won't leave them a free country, either.   Makes me wonder if my eleven years in the Navy were anything more than a crappy paycheck.

If you must vote on a single issue next year, freedom is the noblest single issue man can live or die for, especially when he has five hungry memories to feed.

Thompson to Announce in September

****THIS IS HENNESSY'S VIEW'S 1000TH POST SINCE AUGUST, 2000****

As an act of courtesy to the politics-weary American public, Fred Thompson is likely to announce his candidacy for the GOP nomination for President in September, according to columnist-reporter Robert Novak.

Thompson's late entry may reverse a trend in recent years in which the next presidential campaign begins before the last one ends. If Thompson believes the people will be sick of Giuliani, Clinton, and Obama by the time the Super Bowl comes around, he may be right. An indicator of public weariness with election politics will be campaign contributions. If the numbers for August pull back, expect Thompson to gain some support simply for waiting.

****THIS IS HENNESSY'S VIEW'S 1000TH POST SINCE AUGUST, 2000****