Here’s What Happens Now That Boehner’s “Plan B” Went Down In Flames

Now that Boehner’s “Plan B” strategy has blown up like a poisoned dog, here’s what Boehner will do.

Remember this chart from last month? It shows strategic options from John Boehner’s point of view:

Let’s Be Honest About Republican Options On The

Yesterday, Boehner tried to land about halfway between the top and bottom quadrant on the left, shown here

Fiscal Cliff Plan B Position

Now that Plan B has been rejected, Boehner’s choices are limited to these:

  • Adjourn and hit the fiscal cliff
  • Cut a deal that will earn most Democrat votes and enough Republican votes to pass

My guess is that Boehner feels betrayed by the 40 or so Republicans who refused to vote for Plan B. In reality, he brought it upon himself by purging the committees of fiscal conservatives. (Anyone who thinks some of this isn’t payback is deluding himself.)

Further, Boehner knows that if he can’t get enough GOP votes to pass an extension of Bush tax cuts on everyone making less than $1 million, he has no chance of getting more Republicans vote for a  bigger compromise. 

Therefore, the only way the House can pass a fiscal cliff bill is to win a bunch of Democrat votes.  Since Democrats know this, they can hold out for whatever Obama demands.  Boehner, who doesn’t want to get blamed for failing to reach a deal, will go along and he’ll bring enough Republicans to pass it.

Fiscal Cliff Likely Deal

That means Obama gets pretty much whatever he wants.  That’s my prediction.

Of course, I could be wrong.

Boehner could also reach a deal with 40 or so Democrats by moving the extension down to $400,000 from $1 million.  From a purely strategic point of view, Democrats would be foolish to make that deal. It would undermine Obama and give Republicans their second-best outcome.  (Remember, by second-best, I’m speaking strategically. I’m not saying a compromise is the second-best policy outcome.)

With most of the Blue Dog Democrats gone, I don’t see Boehner picking up enough Democrat votes. They know they can dictate the terms, and they probably will.

Sure, Boehner could join the conservatives and pass a bill that permanently extends the Bush tax cuts completely.  The Senate will ignore it, we’ll hit fiscal cliff, and the next Congress will deal with it. This would be the best policy choice, but, in Boehner’s mind, it would be the worst possible strategic move.  (Again, I’m saying Boehner’s right, but I think this is how he sees it.) Plus, having been humiliated by conservatives on Plan B, Boehner is unlikely to join them now.

Now, go read Erick Erickson’s excellent explanation of why Boehner’s thinking is wrong.  (I disagree with only one point of Erick’s. He thinks Boehner and the GOP will let us hit the fiscal cliff; I do not, as explained above.) Following Erick’s lead, here’s the best policy outcome:

Fiscal Cliff Best Policy

 

What do you think Boehner will do?

 

P.S. Please don’t scream at me that I’m pulling for a compromise or I want Obama’s $1.6 trillion tax hike to pass. If you’re tempted to do so, read this entire piece again carefully.

If We Don’t Flip Some Toss-Up States, Romney, Ryan, and the USA Are Screwed

  Choosing Paul Ryan as his running mate was a great Romney move. Looking ahead, Romney sees movement conservatives working hard right up to the election—even if he or his advisors continues to say stupid things.  That was necessary.

SCROLL DOWN FOR TWO IMPORTANT EVENTS THIS WEEK

But it wasn’t enough to win the election and unseat America’s first anti-American president.  To do that, we must find a way to win over the selfish middle. (I know, writing things like “selfish middle” doesn’t help, but I hate lying to them.)

RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Obama vs. Romney Create Your Own Electoral Map

Here’s the reality: the Electoral College, which once favored Republicans, is now the exclusive property of the DNC.  That’s because “moderates,” who vote for candidates promising to give them stuff, have moved into formerly conservative states.  In the map above, Obama needs only 33 electoral votes to win.

Now, take out all the toss-ups by giving the gray states to the candidate currently with the lead in polls in that state:

RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - No Toss-Ups

If the election were held today, America would be screwed.

It’s possible, perhaps likely, that Romney could win a sizable popular majority and STILL lose an Electoral landslide.

Here’s what we need to do if we don’t want to be the generation that lost America:

  1. Shore up Romney’s lead in the red states like Missouri
  2. Sweep statewide races in red states like Missouri
  3. Ensure a Republican Congress (both houses)
  4. Adopt a toss-up state to work

Here are the toss-up states (electoral votes):

  • Colorado (9)
  • Florida (29)
  • Iowa (6)
  • Nevada (6)
  • New Hampshire (4)
  • North Carolina (15)
  • Ohio (18)
  • Virginia (13)
  • Wisconsin (10)

By “adopting,” here's what I mean:

  • Choose only ONE state to adopt so you can focus your energy
  • Lobby friends and relatives who live in the state
  • Donate to state candidates in your adopted states hoping they have coattails
  • Comment on newspapers and blogs that focus on your adopted state, even if not directly political
  • Call radio talk shows in your adopted state, using their internet broadcast to listen in
  • Pray

Quite honestly, the Electoral College is stacked heavily against Romney. That means it’s stacked against America’s future, as well.  A landslide for Romney in Missouri won’t help Romney in Florida or Virginia.

Yet we still need to elect Ed Martin, Todd Akin, Shane Scholler, Cole McNary, Peter Kinder and the other Missouri candidates.  We need to elect a solid House delegation. And we need to prevail on statewide and regional referenda.

That’s a lot to do.  And only about 90 days to do it.

TWO IMPORTANT EVENTS THIS WEEK

You can get involved beginning this Wednesday, August 4, at 4:00 p.m. in Valley Park at the Victory Bus Tour Rally.   All statewide and local candidates will be at the Victory Fieldhouse.  They will making a stop on the Victory Bus Tour and with this being the statewide HQ, it needs to be full!  Please forward this on to everyone you can.

Victory Bus Tour Rally – ALL Statewide and Local Candidates

Wednesday August 15th – 3:45 – 5 pm Victory Fieldhouse 932A Meramec Station Rd Fenton, MO 63088

If you’d like to discuss this further, come out to Sky Music Lounge this Thursday, August 16, at 7:00 pm, for the next St. Louis Tea Party After Party. The scheduled topic is Voter Fraud, but we’ll be talking a lot of election strategy, too.

Finally, I need say this:  in 2012, yelling at people, telling them they’re wrong, won’t work.  Sitting the election out because your favorite candidate didn’t win would be like surrendering to the Soviets.  Your children and grandchildren deserve to live as free men and women.  If we lose freedom now, it won’t come back in their lifetimes.  Winning this election might not keep you from the chains of slavery to government, but losing will weld the shackles shut.