Don’t bother blaming it on poll questions designed to lead respondents. Never mind that it’s a long way until the election. And stop whining about the White House fudging the numbers on unemployment. The fact is that Obama’s surging at just the right time. His re-election chances are now above 50 percent. His intrade.com chances of winning are near 60 percent. And he’s raising more money than al of the Republican candidates combined.
Here’s everything you need to know.
Republicans Advertise; Democrats Market: For decades, conservatives have held marketers in disdain. They’ve done the same for the fields that support marketing: creative writing, acting, music, art, education, soft sciences, and entertainment. As a result, fewer and fewer casual voters feel emotionally connected to Republicans.
Unless the GOP figures out how to stop shouting and start connecting, they’ll take a drubbing in November.
Team Obama Will Do Anything to Win: Of course they’ll cheat and break the law. They pretty much tell us so. That can also work against them. To turn the tide, though, Republicans have to show the cheating, not whine about it.
When Mike Tyson bit off Evander Holyfield's ear, everyone became a Holyfield fan and turned against Tyson. Had Holyfield blamed the bite for every bad thing that happened thereafter, we’d have tired of him very quickly. And if we hadn’t seen the bite in slow motion, we’d never have believed him.
Be patient. Record everything. Show, don’t tell people. People will the do the right thing.
Commitment Kills Apathy: (Yes, I’m sort of in this boat myself. Sort of.) Casual voters take their cues on whom to support from the passionate politics wonks they know. If you’re one of the wonks and you’re showing apathy, you’re sending a strong signal to the causals. You’re saying, in effect, “Go ahead and vote for Obama; we’ll try again in 2016.”
Two problems with this approach: first, if your party isn’t ready to field a viable candidate for President every four years, your party should probably disband. Second, if we give Obama another 4 years, there might not be an election as we know them in 2016.
If you’re still not committed and you’re still not enthused, then buy a ticket for the 3rd Anniversary Tea Party anyway. Maybe someone there will inspire you.
Of course, you can always just give up and blame someone else. That’s becoming the new American way.