This Is Why Turning People Off Is A Terrible Idea

After Todd Akin's remarks about "legeitmate rape" and "shutting the whole thing down," the pro-life movement lost steam and the number of people identifying themselves as "pro-choice" is near record highs.

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Mitt Romney’s Cleaning Up in Early Voting, but It’s Confused the Hell Out of Politico

Gallup released its early voting poll today, and it shows Mitt Romney winning 52% to 45%—right in line with their Likely Voter poll numbers. Here’s the chart.

GallupEarlyVotingResults

Politico Reporter Can’t Read

But Gallup’s section on early voting by party ID completely lost Politico’s Kevin Robillard.

Robillard looked at the chart that shows when voters intend to vote by party and candidate and mistook it for voting results. This poll question shows that those who support Obama as as likely to vote early as are those who support Romney. No surprise. 

Here’s precisely what Gallup says about this section:

However, when one looks at the voting intentions of likely voters according to candidate support, the political impact for the two candidates appears to be roughly equal.

And here’s what Robillard thinks it says:

Neither candidate has a particular edge among early voters nationally compared to those who will cast their ballots on election day
Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1012/83039.html#ixzz2ApGGRw56

Robillard doesn’t understand that there are simply MORE people who intend to vote for Romney than for Obama. 

What’s worse is the entire liberal media establishment is now confused—or lying—about the poll. They’re taking Robillard’s stupidity and running with it.

More Bad News For Obama

John Nolte points out that Obama’s early voting results are down 22 points from 2008.  That’s huge, and explains why Minnesota and Pennsylvania have moved from Safe for Obama to Toss-Up. 

If Romney wins Pennsylvania, we’ll be celebrating early on the November 6.  Call your friends in PA, comment on Pennsylvania blogs and news sites.  Target people who will vote right if they vote.  Forget conversions—just move the friendlies.

What The Pollsters Aren’t Telling You

Polls do influence elections. That’s why people like Nate Silver and some of the writers at Business Insider are doing somersaults over Gallup’s Daily Presidential Tracking numbers.

RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Electoral Map

For over a week, Gallup has shown a tidal wave for support for Mitt Romney. Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight tried to discredit Gallup by blogging about outlier results it’s shown in past years. Here’s the conclusion Business Insider reached:

Bottom line: Gallup swings wildly and it frequently has results not in line with other pollsters.
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/nate-silver-on-the-gallup-poll-showing-huge-lead-for-mitt-romney-2012-10#ixzz29yPJ4rHE

But here’s what Silver and BI aren’t telling you: Romney’s 7-point lead in Gallup (52-45 as of October 21) is not a wild swing. Not by a long shot.

Instead, Gallup is showing a consistent move toward Romney ever since the first debate. For example, over the past four days, Romney has led by 6, 7, 6, and 7 points.  Before that, he move from 4 points to 6 points over the course of four days.

True, Rasmussen and WSJ/MSLSD show Romney and Obama tied. But that’s not enough to toss out Gallup the way Silver and BI attempt.

Now the reason polls matter is because low-information voters tend to break toward the candidate they think will win. If Romney’s cavernous 7-point lead holds steady, those late deciders will break for Romney. That could result in a landslide.

Combine all this with the latest RCP Electoral Map showing Romney up by 5 in the electoral vote count, and you can understand why liberals will say anything to discredit the polls. 

How to Avoid Overconfidence

Do you worry that conservative grassroots might get overconfident and blow our chance to stop the advance of socialism in America?

overconfidence[1]

I do.  I am concerned that we keep repeating the same tactics to the same audiences until both the audience and the actors become  . . . well, bored.

When I read stories like this one, that GOP sentiment is at an all-time high, I worry that some on our side might decide they can go back to their regularly scheduled programming. 

We can’t sit back, folks. 

The Block Captain and Liberty Evangelism project is intended to swell our ranks, not get us fired up.  We’re already fired up.  But we need to reach out.

Reach to whom?  Well, about twelve percent of us say we’ve participated in a tea party-type event in the past year.  But 58 percent want government to be smaller and less expensive.  We need to make sure that the 46 percent who want smaller government but who are not tea partyers are registered and ready to vote this year.

To do that, we need to get out and meet people. That doesn’t mean reading blogs and talking to other outspoken critics of big government.  That’s entertainment, not action.  Action requires a little bit more of us.  All of us.

When was the last time you handed someone a Constitution and said, “this is a gift. Please read it and decide for yourself whether we’re living into to these documents.” 

Who was the last new voter you registered?

When was the last time you asked a friend or loved one to join you in the Liberty Evangelism program?

I can tell you that it’s been over a week since I handed out a Constitution (except to new Block Captains), and I haven’t handed out a voter registration form in two weeks. I’m behind. (And I need to grab more Constitutions fast.)

There’s a temptation to wait for big rallies. There’s a temptation keep doing the same actions over and over again—writing on facebook, tweeting pithy comments, calling Claire McCaskill’s office. 

Each of these actions is worthy, but they’re not enough. In fact, most of those tactics have lost some value because we’ve done them so often for so long.  I mean, do you really think McCaskill’s office is shocked that so many constituents oppose cap and trade? 

I’m not saying stop calling or writing or rallying.  I’m saying swell our ranks. 

Polls tell us more Americans have decided, “You know what? I can live my life better than Barack Obama and Nancy Pelosi can.” Every day our opportunity to create a sea change in history increases. In other words, people have heard and agreed with our message of smaller government, fiscal responsibility, lower taxes, and renewed federalism.

But we will prevail in November only if we convert those frustrated people into passionate voters.

That means we have to engage them, invite them, befriend them, court them, and register them.  Then we have to remind them to vote.  We should identify those who will take the extra step of engaging and recruiting others.

This is how we grow the base.  And we must.

Can you spare two hours this week to talk to the 58 percent who want to vote for smaller, cheaper government