Here’s My Electoral Map Prediction

Yes, I’m feeling a wave toward Romney.

Bill Hennessy Electoral Map

My gut tells me this year is a lot like 1980.

1980 Was A Dead Heat

The final Gallup poll that year had a dead heat. Time Magazine’s November 3, 1980, called the race a dead heat. So did Newsweek.

The press was hoping John B. Anderson, a former Republican Congressman running for president as an independent, would siphon votes from Reagan. He did siphon votes from Reagan, but not nearly enough. America was fed up with Jimmy Carter.

What appears to be a dead heat to pollsters could, in fact, be a landslide for Romney. And I think that’s the only way Romney wins.

Romney Must Win Big To Win

In a close race, Democrats will cheat, steal, and defraud. They will fight it in the courts, discover ballots in trunks, and sue to let people vote until they get the numbers they need.

For Romney to win, the race must appear hopeless to Democrats before midnight Tuesday.

That’s exactly what I think will happen.

What do you think?

This David Stockman Quote Should Scare the Hell Out of Everyone

Is the US economy about to collapse worse the Greece’s? 

Some, like Paul Krugman, say that it’s okay for governments to print unlimited money.  Others, who have actually managed businesses, say otherwise.

ronald-reagan-david-stockmanDavid Stockman is among the latter.  He was Reagan’s budget director for a few years.  He became a media sensation because of his command of numbers.

He left the White House early, fretting over federal debt.  But debt in the 1980s was as a piggy bank to Wells Fargo.

In an interview with Business Insider, Stockman warned that America’s financial end is nigh, and that you better hope the Lord returns before it gets here.

Here's the heart of the matter. The Fed is a patsy. It is a pathetic dependent of the big Wall Street banks, traders and hedge funds. Everything (it does) is designed to keep this rickety structure from unwinding. If you had a (former Fed Chairman) Paul Volcker running the Fed today 7/8— utterly fearless and independent and willing to scare the hell out of the market any day of the week — you wouldn't have half, you wouldn't have 95 percent, of the speculative positions today. [Emphasis added]

Read more:

The GOP is our best hope, but its candidates better get their brains around this, and fast.  I really don’t feel like spending the rest of  my life foraging for roots and wrestling nuts from a squirrel.

Debunking the 11th Commandment

The Gipper didn’t always follow his own commandment. I’ve appreciated Newt Gingrich’s attitude during the 398 Republican Presidential debates. You know, his approach of refusing to attack his opponents.  

He will, necessarily, change that approach a bit on the stump, but it’s been very effective so far. As Gingrich might put it, anyone on this stage will do a better job than Barack Obama.

And he’d be right. 

But being right about that doesn’t mean candidates don’t have an obligation to show voters why they’re preferable to their opponents.

Since Ronald Reagan handed down the 11th Commandment—thou shalt not speak ill of thy fellow Republicans—every Republican seems to hide behind it. 

“You can’t talk about the people I poisoned!  It violates the 11th Commandment.”

First there’s a practical problem with that approach.  Some candidates have serious baggage that needs to be vetted. If a candidate doesn’t disclose his or her potential issues, who will? 

The press?  Well, the press might, but only if the candidate with the baggage is to the left of the others. In other words, you’ll hear about Romney’s baggage only if his remaining opponents are to his left. 

But there’s also a theoretical problem with the 11th Commandment.  Reagan blew it to smithereens in 1976. At least, Reagan violated the modern interpretation of the 11th Commandment.

In that year, Gerald Ford, a Republican, was struggling to hold together a party ravaged by Watergate. Ford, an Establishment Republican and good man, took over the White House after Richard Nixon resigned.

Reagan had just ended two wildly successful terms as governor of California.  And Reagan was fed up with Ford’s handling of the Soviet Union:

Disgruntled with Ford’s pursuit of détente with the Soviets, Ronald Reagan in 1975 decided to seek the seemingly impossible: to challenge the incumbent president from his own party, thereby breaking Reagan’s own “Eleventh Commandment:” “Thou Shall Not Speak Ill of Another Republican.”

Nothing speaks more ill of another Republican than running for President against that Republican who already occupies the Oval Office.

Nor was Reagan mild in his attacks on Ford.

Reagan hit détente so hard throughout the campaign that there was a consensus that President Ford stopped using the term because Reagan had made it a dirty word. So successful was Reagan that the New York Times, in a May 14, 1976, editorial titled “Mr. Reagan’s Veto,” claimed that the former California governor had “won something approaching veto power over the Ford Administration’s foreign policy.” As Reagan did, Ford dropped in the polls. In another editorial, titled, “President Under Seige,” The Times opined: “Governor Reagan has become a credible candidate while President Ford has slipped from almost certain victor to underdog.”

In fact, Reagan even carried politics beyond the water’s edge. He challenged Ford largely over foreign policy. 

In reality, Reagan’s 11th Commandment was far different from the modern wounded Republican’s definition.

Reagan referred to personal attacks, like Pat Brown calling Reagan a dumb actor.  Reagan never opposed airing of policy differences.  And, based on his fury at a debate in Nashua, New Hampshire, in 1980, campaign tactics were in play, too:

Reagan Wins Debate Before It Starts


Never let blind allegiance to a misunderstood principle prevent the people from knowing their choices. 

Why Can't the Establishment Fix America's Problems?

America has but one political party capable of winning races on a scale large enough to change government practices: the Republican Party. When the GOP takes Washington (or Jefferson City), things don't seem to get better. Wonder why?

Let's take a little stroll down memory lane.

"To secure the nomination, the Dewey forces spent money and made deals and promises that Taft would never make. Offers were made of Federal jobs that Delegates could not resist. Mississippi's delegation was headed by a Taft man, but his Delegates voted the other way. After the vote, one Delegate ran for a train and died of a heart attack on it. He had $1,500 in fresh money on him and the other Delegates claimed it should be divided among them."                                    --Phyllis Schafly, A Choice, Not an Echo

Little has changed since 1948, the year Mrs. Schlafly described above.

In 2012, the Republican machine, in races all across America, will nominate candidates chosen by the Kingmakers.  This year, those kingmakers are making their investments.  Wisely.  They're buying just the right people with just the right promises and just right access to just the right celebrities.

The Grassroots Problem

Kingmakers laugh at grassroots candidates and activists.  We amuse them with our principles and idealism, our willingness to work for free, knocking on doors, sweating in the summer, shivering in the winter.

Kingmakers don't deign to knock doors and meet ordinary people--they have deals to cut. They have staff to do the dirty work of meeting voters.

But the grassroots stress the kingmakers, nonetheless. When a big movement like the tea party rises up and dares to challenge the established powers, the kingmakers scowl. They understand that enough tea partiers with enough time and enough energy and the right candidates could--just might--upset their plans. And then what?

What if another Reagan reached the White House?  Another Taft in the Senate?  Imagine the horror of another Rand Paul or  Paul Ryan stirring up the rabble. What if someone actually ended crony capitalism?

So the Mr. Potters of the GOP crawl into their cobwebby dens and spin their plans. And their plans begin and end with money.

Money Is the Problem

Establishment Republicans operate on a single principle: government is money.  For that matter, Democrats operate on the same principle.  Both parties use government precisely the same way.  They borrow against future generations to buy more power from contemporary friends.

When it comes to Constitutional limits and fiscal responsibility, the only real difference between Democrats and establishment Republicans is who gets the spoils.

Money--and the establishment view of money--is the reason things won't get better just because a Republican wins an election.  The kingmakers don't want fiscal responsibility in Washington.  They just want the debt laundered through their banks and spent on their businesses.

The GOP establishment doesn't want to cut regulations; it wants regulations that favor their donors' businesses.

The GOP establishment doesn't to strengthen America's image in the world, but to make more money overseas.

In 2011, the established Republican Party works overtime to regain the Senate and the White House. If it does, it will reward its friends with our grand-children's fortunes as surely as the Democrats have rewarded their friends.

In short, the establishment can't fix our problems, because the establishment is the problem.

But there is another way.

Anti-Establishment Candidates

In almost every race in America, voters have a choice. A real choice, like the ones Phyllis Schlafly wrote about in 1964.

Candidates like Ed Martin and Todd Akin in Missouri, Richard Mourdock in Indiana, and Rodger Cook in Illinois. These candidates don't have money with which to buy allies. They don't get invitations to royal balls.  Instead, they rely on ordinary men and women to walk neighborhoods, banging doors, and asking relatives to vote.

If these  conservatives are to win their primaries, though, the grassroots must remain strong against the seductions of the establishment.  In tough economic times, those seductions--almost always monetary--will be strong.

But the tea party that carried Rand Paul and Marco Rubio to the Senate can surely win one more for the Gipper, can't we?

Mrs. Schlafly told us how the grassroots prevailed in 1964 against establishment tactics of smears, intimidation, and bribes:

These tactics were not successful because in 1964 the majority of Convention Delegates were independent citizens elected in their districts who sought — not personal advancement or political jobs — but only the nomination and election of a candidate who would end the America Last policies of the past 30 years.

Amen, sister. Amen.

If we're to reverse America's drift toward socialism, away from the Constitution, we must rekindle the spirit of '64 and the Reagan Revolution of 1980.

In both of those years, "independent citizens" rose up and slapped down the Republican establishment.  They said "no" to the jobs and the bailouts the kingmakers offered.  The Goldwater and Reagan delegates stood by their principles, putting America's future before their own egos and wealth.

Yes, Goldwater lost. But Reagan won. And Reagan's victory owed much to the lessons conservatives learned in 1964.

For history to judge us well, we tea partiers must drive a stake through the heart of the establishment.

If not us, who?

If not now, when?

 Note: These views do not necessarily reflect the views of St. Louis Tea Party Coalition. But they should. ;-)

Forward, Wisconsin

Doing the right thing is hard.

Doing the right thing after years of practicing the wrong things is even harder.

When your senate separated the fiscal responsibility provisions affecting union collective bargaining powers from a bill that previously included tax and spend provisions, you took a big step toward fiscal recovery.

For years, public sector unions have dictated states’ taxing spending policies through brute force.  These unions were not elected by the people, but the people were forced to pay—or borrow—what the unions demanded.

Economically, public sector unions are not workers, but part of the of government.  They are management.  They imposed their demands directly on the people who pay the bill and who created their functions in the first place. 

Unlike politicians, though, unions have refused to yield to the electoral process.

Your governor, Scott Walker, and your 18 Republican Senators displayed courage and decency throughout this ordeal, brought on by Democrats who shirked their duties by fleeing the state.  You, the people of Wisconsin, show tremendous patience and courage, too, but standing behind your elected officials who are trying to govern.

When Ronald Reagan fired the illegally striking PATCO workers, leftist pundits predicted mayhem.  They were wrong.  The skies remained as safe after as they’d been before. Federal workers learned a new respect for the American taxpayer.  And the US economy, eventually, healed into a nearly 20-year expansion.

You, Wisconsin, have set an example for us all.  So I lift my glass and toast you with your governor’s brother, Johnny.


Truer Words Were Never Spoken

A truer leader never walked this land



In human relations, there is a fixed ratio between leaders and those they lead.

The people trust leaders as much as the leader trusts the people.

In my lifetime, no leader ever trusted me as much as Ronald Reagan.

And I have trusted no leader as much as I trusted him.

And we never even met.